Dự báo 90 bước · AR(p) on differences
Mô hình AR(p) on differences, khớp trên 750 quan sát tính đến 09/10/2026. Tạo lúc 15:59 10/10/26.
Cần lưu ý
Hồi quy tự tương quan trên sai phân bậc 1, tương đương ARIMA(p,1,0).
Giá hiện tại
68.353.000VNĐ/lượng
Ngày 09/10/2026
Dự báo sau 90 bước
68.348.528VNĐ/lượng-0,01%
Khoảng 95% cuối kỳ
59.844.361 – 76.852.694
Suy ra từ sai số out-of-sample, không phải phần dư in-sample
MASE
6,516
Từ 1 trở lên — không tốt hơn giả định giá đứng yên
Vùng tô là khoảng tin cậy. Nếu vùng này rộng hơn nhiều so với mức thay đổi dự báo, con số điểm không nên được đọc như một mức giá cụ thể.
Đánh giá rolling-origin trên 101 điểm gốc, tổng 9090 lần dự báo out-of-sample.
MASE chia sai số tuyệt đối trung bình cho sai số mà dự báo naive mắc phải trên cùng chuỗi. Dưới 1 nghĩa là mô hình mang thêm thông tin; từ 1 trở lên thì không, dù MAPE trông đẹp đến đâu.
Sai số nở ra theo khoảng cách dự báo — đây là lý do khoảng tin cậy ngày thứ 30 rộng hơn hẳn ngày mai.
| Bước | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | Mẫu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 357.711 | 474.686 | 0,55% | 101 |
| 2 | 518.908 | 698.845 | 0,80% | 101 |
| 3 | 638.877 | 837.879 | 1,00% | 101 |
| 4 | 758.845 | 977.597 | 1,18% | 101 |
| 5 | 817.206 | 1.044.970 | 1,27% | 101 |
| 6 | 899.350 | 1.140.293 | 1,39% | 101 |
| 7 | 967.192 | 1.222.379 | 1,50% | 101 |
| 8 | 1.026.386 | 1.327.156 | 1,59% | 101 |
| 9 | 1.156.619 | 1.496.269 | 1,80% | 101 |
| 10 | 1.175.858 | 1.510.601 | 1,83% | 101 |
| 11 | 1.249.809 | 1.565.634 | 1,94% | 101 |
| 12 | 1.267.912 | 1.613.052 | 1,97% | 101 |
| 13 | 1.311.939 | 1.676.040 | 2,03% | 101 |
| 14 | 1.343.619 | 1.732.904 | 2,08% | 101 |
| 15 | 1.442.495 | 1.844.270 | 2,24% | 101 |
| 16 | 1.417.578 | 1.828.253 | 2,20% | 101 |
| 17 | 1.493.028 | 1.885.913 | 2,31% | 101 |
| 18 | 1.522.457 | 1.938.099 | 2,36% | 101 |
| 19 | 1.513.428 | 1.996.966 | 2,34% | 101 |
| 20 | 1.537.948 | 1.984.019 | 2,37% | 101 |
| 21 | 1.649.978 | 2.093.607 | 2,55% | 101 |
| 22 | 1.659.435 | 2.089.276 | 2,56% | 101 |
| 23 | 1.709.217 | 2.116.439 | 2,64% | 101 |
| 24 | 1.724.446 | 2.175.213 | 2,67% | 101 |
| 25 | 1.751.758 | 2.230.565 | 2,70% | 101 |
| 26 | 1.737.474 | 2.198.059 | 2,68% | 101 |
| 27 | 1.803.931 | 2.283.185 | 2,78% | 101 |
| 28 | 1.841.595 | 2.302.515 | 2,84% | 101 |
| 29 | 1.890.963 | 2.314.354 | 2,92% | 101 |
| 30 | 1.921.156 | 2.371.840 | 2,97% | 101 |
| 31 | 1.978.269 | 2.439.766 | 3,05% | 101 |
| 32 | 1.953.859 | 2.431.401 | 3,01% | 101 |
| 33 | 1.965.129 | 2.472.440 | 3,03% | 101 |
| 34 | 1.967.120 | 2.511.430 | 3,03% | 101 |
| 35 | 2.026.431 | 2.523.425 | 3,12% | 101 |
| 36 | 2.071.088 | 2.587.462 | 3,19% | 101 |
| 37 | 2.122.544 | 2.665.400 | 3,27% | 101 |
| 38 | 2.072.499 | 2.650.158 | 3,18% | 101 |
| 39 | 2.064.361 | 2.668.924 | 3,16% | 101 |
| 40 | 2.086.235 | 2.700.952 | 3,20% | 101 |
| 41 | 2.131.416 | 2.723.311 | 3,27% | 101 |
| 42 | 2.215.571 | 2.805.974 | 3,40% | 101 |
| 43 | 2.223.746 | 2.863.269 | 3,41% | 101 |
| 44 | 2.191.345 | 2.862.996 | 3,35% | 101 |
| 45 | 2.238.988 | 2.912.123 | 3,43% | 101 |
| 46 | 2.249.948 | 2.931.747 | 3,45% | 101 |
| 47 | 2.300.126 | 2.963.667 | 3,52% | 101 |
| 48 | 2.378.396 | 3.025.905 | 3,64% | 101 |
| 49 | 2.396.373 | 3.057.107 | 3,67% | 101 |
| 50 | 2.413.907 | 3.085.654 | 3,69% | 101 |
| 51 | 2.471.933 | 3.136.812 | 3,78% | 101 |
| 52 | 2.509.567 | 3.165.561 | 3,84% | 101 |
| 53 | 2.556.988 | 3.204.323 | 3,91% | 101 |
| 54 | 2.635.532 | 3.269.089 | 4,03% | 101 |
| 55 | 2.683.385 | 3.280.218 | 4,10% | 101 |
| 56 | 2.679.335 | 3.307.721 | 4,09% | 101 |
| 57 | 2.749.047 | 3.352.249 | 4,20% | 101 |
| 58 | 2.765.640 | 3.382.494 | 4,22% | 101 |
| 59 | 2.798.611 | 3.407.819 | 4,27% | 101 |
| 60 | 2.850.166 | 3.475.169 | 4,35% | 101 |
| 61 | 2.874.859 | 3.477.726 | 4,39% | 101 |
| 62 | 2.859.901 | 3.490.905 | 4,35% | 101 |
| 63 | 2.902.608 | 3.519.253 | 4,42% | 101 |
| 64 | 2.936.572 | 3.546.921 | 4,48% | 101 |
| 65 | 2.979.794 | 3.560.960 | 4,54% | 101 |
| 66 | 3.009.956 | 3.635.593 | 4,59% | 101 |
| 67 | 3.043.484 | 3.628.556 | 4,64% | 101 |
| 68 | 3.021.359 | 3.634.050 | 4,60% | 101 |
| 69 | 3.030.921 | 3.644.087 | 4,61% | 101 |
| 70 | 3.090.100 | 3.692.417 | 4,71% | 101 |
| 71 | 3.109.799 | 3.708.693 | 4,73% | 101 |
| 72 | 3.161.260 | 3.784.132 | 4,81% | 101 |
| 73 | 3.164.154 | 3.769.861 | 4,81% | 101 |
| 74 | 3.147.488 | 3.797.458 | 4,78% | 101 |
| 75 | 3.167.275 | 3.812.157 | 4,81% | 101 |
| 76 | 3.247.284 | 3.883.960 | 4,94% | 101 |
| 77 | 3.269.386 | 3.903.076 | 4,97% | 101 |
| 78 | 3.328.094 | 4.008.940 | 5,06% | 101 |
| 79 | 3.322.559 | 3.996.504 | 5,05% | 101 |
| 80 | 3.316.307 | 4.026.435 | 5,03% | 101 |
| 81 | 3.345.618 | 4.041.863 | 5,08% | 101 |
| 82 | 3.435.352 | 4.094.004 | 5,22% | 101 |
| 83 | 3.437.259 | 4.114.348 | 5,22% | 101 |
| 84 | 3.488.716 | 4.201.133 | 5,30% | 101 |
| 85 | 3.482.791 | 4.195.651 | 5,29% | 101 |
| 86 | 3.488.925 | 4.226.086 | 5,29% | 101 |
| 87 | 3.508.776 | 4.225.553 | 5,33% | 101 |
| 88 | 3.588.108 | 4.251.496 | 5,45% | 101 |
| 89 | 3.647.436 | 4.270.087 | 5,54% | 101 |
| 90 | 3.722.055 | 4.338.940 | 5,65% | 101 |
| Ngày | Dự báo | So với hiện tại | Khoảng 80% | Khoảng 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2026 | 68.401.698 | +0,07% | 67.793.363 – 69.010.033 | 67.471.330 – 69.332.066 |
| 11/10/2026 | 68.382.751 | +0,04% | 67.487.145 – 69.278.357 | 67.013.039 – 69.752.462 |
| 12/10/2026 | 68.414.709 | +0,09% | 67.340.923 – 69.488.494 | 66.772.496 – 70.056.922 |
| 13/10/2026 | 68.376.800 | +0,03% | 67.123.959 – 69.629.640 | 66.460.746 – 70.292.854 |
| 14/10/2026 | 68.341.114 | -0,02% | 67.001.931 – 69.680.296 | 66.293.010 – 70.389.217 |
| 15/10/2026 | 68.336.334 | -0,02% | 66.874.989 – 69.797.678 | 66.101.400 – 70.571.267 |
| 16/10/2026 | 68.336.752 | -0,02% | 66.770.210 – 69.903.294 | 65.940.932 – 70.732.571 |
| 17/10/2026 | 68.334.891 | -0,03% | 66.634.072 – 70.035.710 | 65.733.713 – 70.936.069 |
| 18/10/2026 | 68.337.384 | -0,02% | 66.419.838 – 70.254.930 | 65.404.750 – 71.270.017 |
| 19/10/2026 | 68.339.743 | -0,02% | 66.403.830 – 70.275.656 | 65.379.020 – 71.300.466 |
| 20/10/2026 | 68.340.272 | -0,02% | 66.333.831 – 70.346.713 | 65.271.685 – 71.408.859 |
| 21/10/2026 | 68.340.417 | -0,02% | 66.273.207 – 70.407.627 | 65.178.893 – 71.501.941 |
| 22/10/2026 | 68.340.649 | -0,02% | 66.192.718 – 70.488.580 | 65.055.672 – 71.625.626 |
| 23/10/2026 | 68.340.607 | -0,02% | 66.119.801 – 70.561.413 | 64.944.178 – 71.737.036 |
| 24/10/2026 | 68.340.571 | -0,02% | 65.977.044 – 70.704.099 | 64.725.868 – 71.955.275 |
| 25/10/2026 | 68.340.644 | -0,02% | 65.997.643 – 70.683.645 | 64.757.334 – 71.923.954 |
| 26/10/2026 | 68.340.744 | -0,02% | 65.923.849 – 70.757.639 | 64.644.422 – 72.037.066 |
| 27/10/2026 | 68.340.842 | -0,02% | 65.857.068 – 70.824.616 | 64.542.238 – 72.139.447 |
| 28/10/2026 | 68.340.958 | -0,02% | 65.781.743 – 70.900.173 | 64.426.976 – 72.254.940 |
| 29/10/2026 | 68.341.073 | -0,02% | 65.798.451 – 70.883.696 | 64.452.468 – 72.229.679 |
| 30/10/2026 | 68.341.182 | -0,02% | 65.658.117 – 71.024.248 | 64.237.788 – 72.444.577 |
| 31/10/2026 | 68.341.290 | -0,02% | 65.663.774 – 71.018.805 | 64.246.383 – 72.436.196 |
| 01/11/2026 | 68.341.397 | -0,02% | 65.629.071 – 71.053.722 | 64.193.253 – 72.489.540 |
| 02/11/2026 | 68.341.502 | -0,02% | 65.553.855 – 71.129.150 | 64.078.164 – 72.604.841 |
| 03/11/2026 | 68.341.608 | -0,02% | 65.483.024 – 71.200.192 | 63.969.782 – 72.713.435 |
| 04/11/2026 | 68.341.715 | -0,02% | 65.524.788 – 71.158.641 | 64.033.598 – 72.649.831 |
| 05/11/2026 | 68.341.821 | -0,02% | 65.415.801 – 71.267.841 | 63.866.860 – 72.816.782 |
| 06/11/2026 | 68.341.927 | -0,02% | 65.391.135 – 71.292.720 | 63.829.080 – 72.854.775 |
| 07/11/2026 | 68.342.034 | -0,02% | 65.376.070 – 71.307.998 | 63.805.983 – 72.878.085 |
| 08/11/2026 | 68.342.140 | -0,02% | 65.302.506 – 71.381.775 | 63.693.420 – 72.990.861 |
| 09/11/2026 | 68.342.247 | -0,02% | 65.215.561 – 71.468.932 | 63.560.394 – 73.124.100 |
| 10/11/2026 | 68.342.353 | -0,02% | 65.226.387 – 71.458.320 | 63.576.894 – 73.107.813 |
| 11/11/2026 | 68.342.460 | -0,02% | 65.173.901 – 71.511.019 | 63.496.567 – 73.188.352 |
| 12/11/2026 | 68.342.566 | -0,02% | 65.124.039 – 71.561.093 | 63.420.254 – 73.264.879 |
| 13/11/2026 | 68.342.673 | -0,02% | 65.108.773 – 71.576.573 | 63.396.850 – 73.288.496 |
| 14/11/2026 | 68.342.779 | -0,01% | 65.026.814 – 71.658.745 | 63.271.447 – 73.414.111 |
| 15/11/2026 | 68.342.886 | -0,01% | 64.927.038 – 71.758.733 | 63.118.798 – 73.566.974 |
| 16/11/2026 | 68.342.992 | -0,01% | 64.946.678 – 71.739.306 | 63.148.778 – 73.537.206 |
| 17/11/2026 | 68.343.099 | -0,01% | 64.922.735 – 71.763.462 | 63.112.104 – 73.574.093 |
| 18/11/2026 | 68.343.205 | -0,01% | 64.881.796 – 71.804.614 | 63.049.437 – 73.636.973 |
| 19/11/2026 | 68.343.311 | -0,01% | 64.853.248 – 71.833.375 | 63.005.720 – 73.680.903 |
| 20/11/2026 | 68.343.418 | -0,01% | 64.747.417 – 71.939.419 | 62.843.809 – 73.843.026 |
| 21/11/2026 | 68.343.524 | -0,01% | 64.674.098 – 72.012.951 | 62.731.621 – 73.955.428 |
| 22/11/2026 | 68.343.631 | -0,01% | 64.674.554 – 72.012.708 | 62.732.262 – 73.954.999 |
| 23/11/2026 | 68.343.737 | -0,01% | 64.611.701 – 72.075.773 | 62.636.081 – 74.051.393 |
| 24/11/2026 | 68.343.844 | -0,01% | 64.586.659 – 72.101.029 | 62.597.725 – 74.089.962 |
| 25/11/2026 | 68.343.950 | -0,01% | 64.545.858 – 72.142.042 | 62.535.270 – 74.152.630 |
| 26/11/2026 | 68.344.057 | -0,01% | 64.466.203 – 72.221.910 | 62.413.392 – 74.274.721 |
| 27/11/2026 | 68.344.163 | -0,01% | 64.426.323 – 72.262.003 | 62.352.344 – 74.335.982 |
| 28/11/2026 | 68.344.270 | -0,01% | 64.389.844 – 72.298.695 | 62.296.498 – 74.392.041 |
| 29/11/2026 | 68.344.376 | -0,01% | 64.324.390 – 72.364.362 | 62.196.338 – 74.492.414 |
| 30/11/2026 | 68.344.482 | -0,01% | 64.287.653 – 72.401.311 | 62.140.098 – 74.548.867 |
| 01/12/2026 | 68.344.589 | -0,01% | 64.238.083 – 72.451.094 | 62.064.231 – 74.624.947 |
| 02/12/2026 | 68.344.695 | -0,01% | 64.155.189 – 72.534.201 | 61.937.399 – 74.751.992 |
| 03/12/2026 | 68.344.802 | -0,01% | 64.141.033 – 72.548.570 | 61.915.693 – 74.773.911 |
| 04/12/2026 | 68.344.908 | -0,01% | 64.105.893 – 72.583.923 | 61.861.894 – 74.827.923 |
| 05/12/2026 | 68.345.015 | -0,01% | 64.048.935 – 72.641.094 | 61.774.728 – 74.915.301 |
| 06/12/2026 | 68.345.121 | -0,01% | 64.010.281 – 72.679.961 | 61.715.555 – 74.974.687 |
| 07/12/2026 | 68.345.228 | -0,01% | 63.977.932 – 72.712.523 | 61.666.025 – 75.024.430 |
| 08/12/2026 | 68.345.334 | -0,01% | 63.891.726 – 72.798.942 | 61.534.128 – 75.156.540 |
| 09/12/2026 | 68.345.441 | -0,01% | 63.888.555 – 72.802.326 | 61.529.223 – 75.161.658 |
| 10/12/2026 | 68.345.547 | -0,01% | 63.871.773 – 72.819.321 | 61.503.500 – 75.187.594 |
| 11/12/2026 | 68.345.653 | -0,01% | 63.835.550 – 72.855.757 | 61.448.045 – 75.243.262 |
| 12/12/2026 | 68.345.760 | -0,01% | 63.800.198 – 72.891.322 | 61.393.923 – 75.297.597 |
| 13/12/2026 | 68.345.866 | -0,01% | 63.782.313 – 72.909.420 | 61.366.513 – 75.325.219 |
| 14/12/2026 | 68.345.973 | -0,01% | 63.686.773 – 73.005.173 | 61.220.342 – 75.471.604 |
| 15/12/2026 | 68.346.079 | -0,01% | 63.695.898 – 72.996.261 | 61.234.241 – 75.457.918 |
| 16/12/2026 | 68.346.186 | -0,01% | 63.688.963 – 73.003.408 | 61.223.578 – 75.468.793 |
| 17/12/2026 | 68.346.292 | -0,01% | 63.676.206 – 73.016.378 | 61.204.012 – 75.488.572 |
| 18/12/2026 | 68.346.399 | -0,01% | 63.614.376 – 73.078.422 | 61.109.394 – 75.583.403 |
| 19/12/2026 | 68.346.505 | -0,01% | 63.593.624 – 73.099.386 | 61.077.601 – 75.615.409 |
| 20/12/2026 | 68.346.612 | -0,01% | 63.497.051 – 73.196.172 | 60.929.849 – 75.763.374 |
| 21/12/2026 | 68.346.718 | -0,01% | 63.515.447 – 73.177.989 | 60.957.926 – 75.735.510 |
| 22/12/2026 | 68.346.824 | -0,01% | 63.480.186 – 73.213.463 | 60.903.943 – 75.789.706 |
| 23/12/2026 | 68.346.931 | -0,01% | 63.461.455 – 73.232.407 | 60.875.241 – 75.818.621 |
| 24/12/2026 | 68.347.037 | -0,01% | 63.369.542 – 73.324.533 | 60.734.615 – 75.959.460 |
| 25/12/2026 | 68.347.144 | -0,01% | 63.345.151 – 73.349.137 | 60.697.256 – 75.997.032 |
| 26/12/2026 | 68.347.250 | -0,01% | 63.209.586 – 73.484.914 | 60.489.871 – 76.204.629 |
| 27/12/2026 | 68.347.357 | -0,01% | 63.225.631 – 73.469.083 | 60.514.353 – 76.180.360 |
| 28/12/2026 | 68.347.463 | -0,01% | 63.187.379 – 73.507.548 | 60.455.795 – 76.239.132 |
| 29/12/2026 | 68.347.570 | -0,01% | 63.167.713 – 73.527.426 | 60.425.663 – 76.269.476 |
| 30/12/2026 | 68.347.676 | -0,01% | 63.100.999 – 73.594.353 | 60.323.576 – 76.371.776 |
| 31/12/2026 | 68.347.783 | -0,01% | 63.075.033 – 73.620.532 | 60.283.808 – 76.411.757 |
| 01/01/2027 | 68.347.889 | -0,01% | 62.963.920 – 73.731.858 | 60.113.819 – 76.581.959 |
| 02/01/2027 | 68.347.995 | -0,01% | 62.971.052 – 73.724.939 | 60.124.670 – 76.571.321 |
| 03/01/2027 | 68.348.102 | -0,01% | 62.932.155 – 73.764.049 | 60.065.126 – 76.631.078 |
| 04/01/2027 | 68.348.208 | -0,01% | 62.932.944 – 73.763.473 | 60.066.276 – 76.630.141 |
| 05/01/2027 | 68.348.315 | -0,01% | 62.899.804 – 73.796.826 | 60.015.537 – 76.681.093 |
| 06/01/2027 | 68.348.421 | -0,01% | 62.876.085 – 73.820.758 | 59.979.205 – 76.717.638 |
| 07/01/2027 | 68.348.528 | -0,01% | 62.787.952 – 73.909.103 | 59.844.361 – 76.852.694 |
Công khai để kết quả có thể kiểm chứng lại, thay vì phải tin vào một hộp đen.